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Liga MX

Pachuca - Tijuana

09/21/2026, 12:00 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Pachuca
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Tijuana
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PACTIJ

Pachuca

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
ElĂ­as Montiel not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 91% available)

Tijuana

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.40
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.13
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.09
Weak away record (0.4 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Pachuca: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs away weakness: Pachuca concedes only 0.90 goals per home match on average while Tijuana concedes 2.36 goals per away match
  • Pachuca's positive trend: The home team averaged 1.8 goals per match recently compared to their season average of 1.5
  • Statistical edge: The predictive model favors a home win for Pachuca with a probability of 44%
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Tijuana concedes an extremely high average of 2.36 goals per away match
  • Low offensive threat: Tijuana averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Key player missing: ElĂ­as Montiel is out for Pachuca despite contributing 1 goal and 1 assist this season
Overview

Pachuca hosts Tijuana at the Estadio Hidalgo

Liga MX match on September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM

Pachuca is in 12th place with 11 points

Tijuana occupies 10th place with 13 points

A mid-table clash where both teams aim to climb higher in the standings

Form

Pachuca has a form of LDDWW and comes off two consecutive wins

Tijuana shows a form of DWLWL having lost their last match

In the last five matches Pachuca recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Tijuana accumulated 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Statistics

Pachuca scores an average of 1.35 goals per game and concedes 1.1 goals

Tijuana averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per game

Tijuana is highly vulnerable on the road conceding an average of 2.36 goals per away match

Pachuca is defensively solid at home conceding only 0.90 goals per home match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in this period

Tijuana dominates the direct history with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Pachuca

The last encounter ended in a 3-1 win for Tijuana on April 23, 2026

A total of 14 goals were scored across these 4 matches

Key Players

SalomĂłn RondĂłn is Pachuca's top scorer with 8 goals in 8 matches

Oussama Idrissi has 1 goal and 2 assists with a rating of 7.30 for Pachuca

Carlos AdriĂĄn SĂĄnchez Nava has contributed 2 assists for the home side

Not nominated: ElĂ­as Montiel (1G/1A)

Gilberto Mora leads Tijuana with 4 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances

Alejandro GĂłmez stabilizes Tijuana's defense with an average rating of 7.29

Adonis Preciado has provided 1 assist with a rating of 7.18 for Tijuana

Goalkeepers

Carlos AgustĂ­n Moreno Luna plays in goal for Pachuca with a rating of 7.24 and has 10 clean sheets for his team this season

Antonio RodrĂ­guez is in goal for Tijuana with a rating of 6.96 and has 13 clean sheets for his team

Influences

The match will be played at the Estadio Hidalgo on grass

Pachuca has a solid home record conceding only 0.90 goals per home game

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this stadium

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