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Pachuca – Tijuana2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.60
Total xG
2.87
Tijuana
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (2 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Elías Montiel not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.4 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home strength vs away weakness: Pachuca concedes only 0.90 goals per home match on average while Tijuana concedes 2.36 goals per away match
- Pachuca's positive trend: The home team averaged 1.8 goals per match recently compared to their season average of 1.5
- Statistical edge: The predictive model favors a home win for Pachuca with a probability of 44%
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Tijuana concedes an extremely high average of 2.36 goals per away match
- Low offensive threat: Tijuana averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Key player missing: Elías Montiel is out for Pachuca despite contributing 1 goal and 1 assist this season
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca44%
Draw28%
Tijuana29%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw71%
Tijuana or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: 6 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Pachuca: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Tijuana 5-4-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 12 S. Santos
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 206 T. Hernández
- 221 Ulises Martínez
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 26 A. Perez
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
- 11 F. González
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