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América – Guadalajara2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
América
1.50
Total xG
2.77
Guadalajara
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Isaías Violante on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Outstanding form: Both teams currently score an average of 2.6 goals per game, exceeding their season averages
- Tactical dominance: América recently averaged an impressive 7.8 shots on target per match with 55% possession
- Home and away discrepancy: While América concedes only 0.95 goals at home, Guadalajara allows an average of 1.88 goals on the road
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away match
- Head-to-head history: América lost the last direct encounter 0-1 and won only one of the past four meetings
All probabilities
Result
América41%
Draw28%
Guadalajara31%
Double chance
América or draw69%
Guadalajara or draw59%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Raphael Veiga starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Guadalajara: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 26 C. Borja González
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 6 O. Govea García
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
Substitutes
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 217 Í. da Conceição
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 18 J. Perez
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