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Liga MX

América - Guadalajara

09/20/2026, 03:15 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
América
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Guadalajara
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AMÉGUA

América

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.34
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.25
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Isaías Violante on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Guadalajara

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.20
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.05
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    América with Raphael Veiga starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (15/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Guadalajara: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

28%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Outstanding form: Both teams currently score an average of 2.6 goals per game, exceeding their season averages
  • Tactical dominance: América recently averaged an impressive 7.8 shots on target per match with 55% possession
  • Home and away discrepancy: While América concedes only 0.95 goals at home, Guadalajara allows an average of 1.88 goals on the road
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive weakness: Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away match
  • Head-to-head history: América lost the last direct encounter 0-1 and won only one of the past four meetings
Overview

América vs Guadalajara at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX clash on September 20, 2026, 3:15 AM

Third place (16 points) faces second place (17 points)

A crucial match to close the gap on the leaders

Form

América: WWWWL (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)

4 wins and 1 loss recently, averaging 2.6 goals per game

Guadalajara: WWDWW (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)

Unbeaten in 5 matches, also averaging 2.6 goals per game

Statistics

América scores 1.61 goals and concedes 1.16 on average this season

At home, América concedes only 0.95 goals per game

Guadalajara averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.23 conceded

On the road, Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.88 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches overall

1 win for América, 2 wins for Guadalajara, 1 draw

Overall goals: 2:3 from América's perspective

The last encounter ended 1:0 for Guadalajara

Key Players

Henry Martin (3 season goals, 1 assist, 7.15 rating)

Brian Rodríguez (3 season goals, 7.39 rating)

Raphael Veiga (1 season goal, 2 assists, 7.33 rating)

Not nominated: Isaías Violante (1 goal, 1 assist)

Roberto Alvarado (4 season goals, 1 assist, 7.61 rating)

Ricardo Marín (4 season goals, 2 assists, 7.21 rating)

Diego Campillo (1 season goal, 1 assist, 7.12 rating)

Goalkeepers

Rodolfo Cota (América) carries a rating of 7.28 with 11 clean sheets this season

Raúl Rangel (Guadalajara) holds a rating of 7.20 with 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Home advantage for América at Estadio Banorte with 1.57 goals per home match

The match will be played on a grass surface

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