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Liga MX

Atlas - Pumas UNAM

09/19/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlas
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Pumas UNAM
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

8%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ATLPU

Atlas

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.29
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.07
Édgar Zaldívar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Arturo González on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 77% available)

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-0.39
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.21
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.18
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.7 goals/match)
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Atlas scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
  • Critical offensive bottleneck for the visitors: Only 16% of goal-scoring threat is available for Pumas UNAM
  • The mathematical prediction favors Atlas with a 39% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Atlas recently averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match
  • The visitors' goal production is halting significantly with only 1.0 goals in recent form compared to their season average of 1.7
  • The mathematical analysis expects a low-scoring game with a 57% probability for Under 2.5 goals
Overview

Atlas (9th place, 13 points) host Pumas UNAM (11th place, 11 points) at the Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX match on September 19, 2026, 11:00 PM

A tight midfield duel with only two points difference

Form

Atlas shows mixed form with the record WWLDL

Two wins, one draw, and two losses in their recent matches

Pumas UNAM arrives with a form curve of DDLWL

One win, two draws, and two losses show inconsistent performances

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlas scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.58 goals per match

At home, the defense is more stable, conceding only 1.09 goals on average

Pumas UNAM shows strong offensive power with 1.63 goals per game

The visitors concede an average of 1.5 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Even historical record in the last 4 head-to-head matches

One win for Atlas, one victory for Pumas UNAM, and two draws

The last meeting ended in a 2:2 draw on February 8, 2026

Key Players

For the home team, Luís André Leite Esteves (2 goals, 1 assist) and Duk (2 goals, 1 assist) are key

Florián Monzón is also in the starting lineup with 2 goals this season

Not nominated: Édgar Zaldívar (2 goals, 1 assist) and Arturo González (1 goal, 1 assist)

For the visitors, Robert Morales (2 goals, 3 assists) and Juninho (4 goals) are highly influential

Luciano Herrera (1 goal, 1 assist) is also a key factor in attack

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas starts in goal for Atlas and has kept 10 clean sheets this season

Keylor Navas plays for the visitors and has recorded 12 clean sheets in total

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Jalisco

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match

Both teams scored in four out of five matches

Atlas benefited from 7 home clean sheets this season

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