Match report →
Atlas – Pumas UNAM1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.29
Total xG
2.39
Pumas UNAM
1.10
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.39 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Édgar Zaldívar on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Arturo González on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Atlas scores more frequently recently (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
- Critical offensive bottleneck for the visitors: Only 16% of goal-scoring threat is available for Pumas UNAM
- The mathematical prediction favors Atlas with a 39% home win probability
Risks
- Atlas recently averaged only 3.2 shots on target per match
- The visitors' goal production is halting significantly with only 1.0 goals in recent form compared to their season average of 1.7
- The mathematical analysis expects a low-scoring game with a 57% probability for Under 2.5 goals
All probabilities
Result
Atlas39%
Draw31%
Pumas UNAM30%
Double chance
Atlas or draw70%
Pumas UNAM or draw61%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
10%
0:1
8%
2:1
8%
Lineups
Atlas 3-4-2-1 · Pumas UNAM 4-4-2
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 19 A. Frías
- 28 M. Capasso
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 18 E. Montiel
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 11 L. Lopes
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 14 L. Herrera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Substitutes
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
- 20 K. Zenon
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 58 A. González González
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 10 C. Huerta Valera
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →