Match report →
Querétaro – León1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
1.37
Total xG
2.78
León
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | León |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- León concede an average of 4.11 goals per away match this season
- Only 31% of León's season goal production is active for this match
- Querétaro have been defensively stable recently, conceding only 1.25 goals on average in recent matches
Risks
- Querétaro play defensively, averaging only 39% possession in recent matches
- León averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
- Highly balanced model predictions with 35% home win vs 37% away win
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro35%
Draw29%
León36%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw64%
León or draw65%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.3 (19/6 games, last 30)
- Querétaro: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Querétaro: 37% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · León 4-1-4-1
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
León
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 13 D. Arcila
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
Substitutes
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 15 S. Fierro González
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 12 J. González Vela-Alvizu
- 18 E. Guerra
- 23 O. García
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 33 A. Villegas
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 21 S. Londoño González
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →