🇲🇽

Liga MX

Querétaro - León

09/21/2026, 02:10 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Querétaro
1.4
Total xG
2.8
León
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
QUELEÓ

Querétaro

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
Rising form (2 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.11
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.04

León

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.14
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.3 (19/6 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Querétaro: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 3
    Querétaro: 37% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 19)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • León concede an average of 4.11 goals per away match this season
  • Only 31% of León's season goal production is active for this match
  • Querétaro have been defensively stable recently, conceding only 1.25 goals on average in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Querétaro play defensively, averaging only 39% possession in recent matches
  • León averaged a strong 5.8 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Highly balanced model predictions with 35% home win vs 37% away win
Overview

Querétaro (8th place, 13 points) host León (9th place, 13 points) at Estadio La Corregidora

Liga MX match on September 21, 2026, 4:10 AM

Direct mid-table clash with both teams tied on points

Form

Querétaro current form is WDLWW

León current form is WWDLW

Querétaro recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

León achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their recent run

Statistics

Querétaro average 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per match this season

León average 1.06 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per match

Querétaro's solid home defense concedes only 0.91 goals per game on average

León's weak away defense concedes an average of 4.11 goals per game on the road

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent history

Querétaro won 1, León won 2, with 1 draw

Goal difference of 3:8 against Querétaro

The last meeting ended in a 2:0 win for Querétaro on February 7, 2026

Key Players

Querétaro features Santiago Homenchenko (Defender, 4 goals, 2 assists, rating 7.62), Alí Ávila (Attacker, 3 goals, rating 6.95), and Mateo Coronel (Attacker, 2 goals, rating 6.95)

León features Díber Cambindo (Attacker, 3 goals, 1 assist, rating 7.29), Jordi Cortizo (Attacker, 2 goals, rating 7.35), and Daniel Arcila (Midfielder, 3 goals, rating 7.03)

Goalkeepers

Querétaro with Guillermo Allison (rating 6.95, 5 home clean sheets this season)

León starts Óscar García (rating 7.03, 3 clean sheets this season)

Influences

Estadio La Corregidora features a grass surface

Venue's historical average is 2.8 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 matches played at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.