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Toluca – Santos Laguna2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
1.80
Total xG
2.65
Santos Laguna
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.75 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.39 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.25 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 1, 16 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 17, 16 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Helinho on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jesús Angulo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Toluca is in exceptional scoring form, averaging 3.0 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 2.2
- The mathematical model calculates a strong 58% probability for a home win with 1.80 expected goals for Toluca
- Toluca controlled their recent games with an average of 56.2% possession and active gameplay
Risks
- Santos Laguna's defensive record on the road is highly concerning, conceding an average of 3.14 goals per away game this season
- Santos Laguna's attack is currently struggling, averaging only 1.0 goal per match in their recent fixtures
- Toluca has had less rest time with only 5 days since their last match compared to Santos Laguna's 7 days
All probabilities
Result
Toluca58%
Draw26%
Santos Laguna16%
Double chance
Toluca or draw84%
Santos Laguna or draw42%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (14/13 games, last 30)
Lineups
Toluca 4-1-3-2 · Santos Laguna 5-4-1
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 205 E. Téllez
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 8 N. Castro
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
Substitutes
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 23 O. Virgen
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 198 J. Estrada
- 19 S. Simón
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 12 Ronaldo Beltrán Dimas
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 22 K. Picón Álvarez
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