đŸ‡ČđŸ‡œ

Liga MX

Monterrey - Cruz Azul

09/20/2026, 01:10 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Monterrey
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Cruz Azul
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MONCA

Monterrey

Attack strength (1.4x league average)
-0.30
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.24
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.12
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.02
Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

Cruz Azul

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.52
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.04
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Nicolås Ibåñez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Monterrey: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Monterrey: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

30%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Highly balanced model prediction: Home win probability at 36% versus 34% away win with very close expected goals (1.32 to 1.28)
  • Cruz Azul's H2H dominance with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters, outscoring Monterrey 9-1
  • Attacking metrics: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target recently, compared to Cruz Azul's average of 7.0
Risk Factors
  • Monterrey will have to play without Diego Rossi, who has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season
  • Cruz Azul is missing NicolĂĄs Ibåñez, depriving the attack of 3 seasonal goals
  • Inconsistent season performance for Monterrey with 3 defeats already in 7 league matches
Overview

Monterrey (12th place, 10 points) host Cruz Azul (4th place, 15 points) at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Liga MX match on September 20, 2026, 3:10 AM

A clash between the mid-table and the top teams

Form

Monterrey shows a form of WWLLD in recent matches

Most recently, they recorded a 0-0 home draw against Tigres UANL

Cruz Azul arrives with a form of LLWWW and three consecutive wins

In their last game, the visitors celebrated a 4-3 home win against América

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Monterrey averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game this season

At home, their defense is more stable with only 1.10 goals conceded per match

Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.77 goals and concedes just 1.09 per game

Away from home, Cruz Azul averages 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 20 of Monterrey's 38 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in this period

Cruz Azul dominates the record with 3 wins and 1 draw

Monterrey is yet to secure a victory in this matchup

The last meeting on March 1, 2026, ended in a 2-0 win for Cruz Azul

The overall goal difference is 1-9 in favor of Cruz Azul

Key Players

Lucas Ocampos stands out for Monterrey with 5 goals and 2 assists, holding a 7.99 rating

Hugo Cuypers contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances

OrbelĂ­n Pineda strengthens the midfield with 1 goal and 1 assist

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela shines with 2 goals and 4 assists in 8 matches

Carlos RodrĂ­guez has already provided 5 assists with a rating of 7.23

Jeremy MĂĄrquez has scored 3 goals this season for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Esteban Andrada guards the goal for Monterrey with an average rating of 7.13

For Cruz Azul, Kevin Mier played 7 matches, achieving a rating of 6.85

Over the season, Monterrey kept 10 clean sheets while Cruz Azul achieved 12 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Stadium statistics show high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at this arena

Monterrey averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded at home this season

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.