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Monterrey – Cruz Azul1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.32
Total xG
2.60
Cruz Azul
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.52 | |
| Attack strength (1.4x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Ibáñez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Highly balanced model prediction: Home win probability at 36% versus 34% away win with very close expected goals (1.32 to 1.28)
- Cruz Azul's H2H dominance with 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters, outscoring Monterrey 9-1
- Attacking metrics: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target recently, compared to Cruz Azul's average of 7.0
Risks
- Monterrey will have to play without Diego Rossi, who has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season
- Cruz Azul is missing Nicolás Ibáñez, depriving the attack of 3 seasonal goals
- Inconsistent season performance for Monterrey with 3 defeats already in 7 league matches
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey36%
Draw30%
Cruz Azul34%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw66%
Cruz Azul or draw64%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 17)
Lineups
Monterrey 3-4-1-2 · Cruz Azul 5-4-1
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 10 L. Orellano
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 99 H. Cuypers
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 33 G. Piovi
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 20 J. Paradela
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
Substitutes
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 203 A. De Nigris González
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 15 R. Orquin
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 55 Rogelio González
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 60 A. Castro Sevilla
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