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Atlético San Luis – Necaxa3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.40
Total xG
2.64
Necaxa
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.24 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 14% of the seasonal goal-scoring threat is available in the home team's active squad
- Atlético San Luis averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Historical dominance for Necaxa with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head meetings
Risks
- Necaxa concedes a high average of 2.35 goals per away game
- Atlético San Luis concedes an average of 1.62 goals per match at home
- Both teams show a weak current form trend classified as Negative
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis39%
Draw29%
Necaxa32%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw68%
Necaxa or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Necaxa: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)
- Atlético San Luis: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')
- Atlético San Luis: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
- Necaxa: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Necaxa 4-1-4-1
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
Necaxa
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 4 A. Peña López
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 9 J. Carranza
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
Substitutes
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 23 C. López De Alba
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 6 D. Leyva
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 181 J. Orantes
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