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Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Necaxa

09/19/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Necaxa
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ASLNEC

Atlético San Luis

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.24
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.02
Full strength squad available

Necaxa

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)

  • 2
    Necaxa: 2.9 cards per game (29 yellows, 6 reds in 12 games)

  • 3
    Atlético San Luis: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (8 points lost)

  • 5
    Necaxa: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)

  • 6
    Necaxa: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Only 14% of the seasonal goal-scoring threat is available in the home team's active squad
  • Atlético San Luis averaged 4.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Historical dominance for Necaxa with 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-head meetings
Risk Factors
  • Necaxa concedes a high average of 2.35 goals per away game
  • Atlético San Luis concedes an average of 1.62 goals per match at home
  • Both teams show a weak current form trend classified as Negative
Overview

Atlético San Luis (16th place, 6 points) host Necaxa (13th place, 8 points) at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Liga MX match on September 19, 2026, 11:00 PM

A bottom-third duel with both teams aiming to close the gap to the mid-table

Form

Atlético San Luis form: LDWLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)

The hosts come off two consecutive defeats

Necaxa form: LDLDL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)

Both teams find themselves in a difficult phase lacking consistency

Statistics

Atlético San Luis scores an average of 1.44 goals per match this season

At home, the hosts concede an average of 1.62 goals per game

Necaxa records an average of 1.29 goals per away match

The visitors show significant defensive issues on the road, conceding 2.35 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

Necaxa dominates the historical record with 3 wins in 4 matches

Atlético San Luis has not won any of these head-to-head encounters (1 draw)

The last meeting on February 7, 2026 ended in a clear 4:1 win for Necaxa

A total of 17 goals were scored across the 4 matches

Key Players

Óscar Macías (midfielder, 1 goal and 1 assist) and David Rodríguez (midfielder, 2 goals) shape the home midfield

Rafa Llorente has already contributed 2 goals for Atlético San Luis this season

For the visitors, Julián Carranza stands out with 4 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances

Juan Valencia scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in 4 appearances

Kaiky Marques Naves stabilizes Necaxa's defense with an average rating of 6.97

Goalkeepers

Manuel Gibran Lajud Bojalil has played 2 season matches for Atlético San Luis with an average rating of 6.81

Christopher Andrade starts in goal for the visitors, but has not played a match this season

The hosts recorded 7 clean sheets this season, while Necaxa has achieved 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

The hosts score an average of 1.44 goals at home but concede 1.62 goals per game

An average of 2.4 goals per match was recorded in the last 5 matches at this venue

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