Match report →
Puebla – Atlante1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.25
Total xG
2.47
Atlante
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.46x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Puebla shows a positive form trend and currently scores more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.2)
- Atlante is struggling offensively in recent matches, averaging only 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.0
- The mathematical model predicts a tight match with a 36% probability of a home win and 34% of an away victory
Risks
- Puebla enters this fixture with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last match
- A low-scoring match is anticipated as the probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at just 45%
- Limited data availability for head-to-head records due to a lack of previous matchups
All probabilities
Result
Puebla36%
Draw31%
Atlante34%
Double chance
Puebla or draw66%
Atlante or draw64%
No draw69%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
10%
1:0
9%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)
- Atlante: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Atlante: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Puebla 4-2-3-1 · Atlante 3-4-2-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 29 W. Portales
- 16 J. González
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Substitutes
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 12 I. Moreno
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 20 G. Adame
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
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