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Liga MX

Puebla - Atlante

09/19/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Atlante
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
PUEATL

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.46x league average)
-0.71
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap)
+0.04

Atlante

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlante: 6 of 12 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlante: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Atlante: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

31%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Puebla shows a positive form trend and currently scores more frequently (1.4) than their season average (1.2)
  • Atlante is struggling offensively in recent matches, averaging only 0.5 goals compared to their season average of 1.0
  • The mathematical model predicts a tight match with a 36% probability of a home win and 34% of an away victory
Risk Factors
  • Puebla enters this fixture with a short rest period of only 3 days since their last match
  • A low-scoring match is anticipated as the probability for over 2.5 goals is calculated at just 45%
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head records due to a lack of previous matchups
Overview

Puebla host Atlante at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Liga MX match on September 19, 2026, 3:00 AM

Puebla currently sit in 8th place with 13 points

Atlante occupy 15th place with 7 points

Form

Puebla show mixed form with the sequence WWLWL

Their last match ended in a 0-1 defeat against Toluca

Atlante are winless in 5 matches with a form of DLDDL

In their last game Atlante suffered a 0-3 loss to Pachuca

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Puebla average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded per match this season

Their home record stands at 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded on average

Atlante average 0.88 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

On the road Atlante concede an average of 1.17 goals per match

The mathematical model predicts 1.25 goals for Puebla and 1.22 goals for Atlante

Key Players

Carlos Baltazar key in midfield with a rating of 6.96 in 7 matches

MathĂ­as TomĂĄs has scored 1 goal in 5 appearances with a rating of 7.17

Alejandro Organista has provided 1 assist in 8 appearances this season

MartĂ­n Sarrafiore has scored 2 goals in 5 games with a 7.02 rating

Jhojan Julio contributes 1 goal and 2 assists in 8 matches

L. Calzadilla has recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 7 league games

Goalkeepers

Daniel Gutiérrez plays in goal for Puebla keeping a rating of 6.87

Puebla have achieved 6 clean sheets so far this season

Óscar JimĂ©nez guards the net for Atlante with a rating of 7.17

Atlante have recorded 1 clean sheet during this campaign

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.6 goals per match at this stadium

Both teams scored in 60% of matches historically recorded at this venue

Puebla score an average of 1.0 goals per game in home fixtures

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