Match report →
Juárez – Tigres UANL2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.18
Total xG
2.70
Tigres UANL
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.32 | +0.32 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Declining form (1.3 vs 2 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive bottleneck for the visitors: Tigres UANL has only 12% of their usual goal production available according to Squad Impact
- Deep form crisis: Juárez has lost all 8 league games and holds a 5-match losing streak
- Tactical inefficiency: Juárez averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risks
- Defensively vulnerable: Juárez concedes 1.74 goals per match on average this season
- Low offensive output: Juárez is struggling to score with only 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
- Away defensive struggles: Tigres UANL concedes 1.87 goals per away match on average
All probabilities
Result
Juárez28%
Draw29%
Tigres UANL43%
Double chance
Juárez or draw57%
Tigres UANL or draw72%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Juárez: 60% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 10)
- Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Juárez 5-3-2 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 6 Monchu
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 15 A. Franco
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 14 E. López Castro
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 34 H. Koifman
- 198 I.Galván
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →