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Liga MX

Juárez - Tigres UANL

09/19/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.2
Total xG
2.7
Tigres UANL
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
JUÁTU

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-0.53
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.23
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.22
Full strength squad available

Tigres UANL

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.34
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.24
Declining form (1.3 vs 2 season average)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.32
+0.32
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: 60% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 10)

  • 3
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Juárez: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 5
    Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 6 of 9 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

29%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Offensive bottleneck for the visitors: Tigres UANL has only 12% of their usual goal production available according to Squad Impact
  • Deep form crisis: Juárez has lost all 8 league games and holds a 5-match losing streak
  • Tactical inefficiency: Juárez averaged only 2.4 shots on target per match in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Defensively vulnerable: Juárez concedes 1.74 goals per match on average this season
  • Low offensive output: Juárez is struggling to score with only 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Away defensive struggles: Tigres UANL concedes 1.87 goals per away match on average
Overview

Juárez hosts Tigres UANL at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Liga MX match on September 19, 2026, 5:00 AM

Juárez is currently in 18th place with 0 points

Tigres UANL occupies 14th place with 7 points

A crucial battle in the lower half of the table

Form

Juárez is in poor form with five consecutive defeats

Home team form string: LLLLL

Tigres UANL comes off three consecutive draws

Away team form string: LWDDD

Home team record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses

Away team record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss

Statistics

Juárez concedes an average of 1.74 goals per match this season

In home matches Juárez scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.36 on average

Tigres UANL scores an average of 1.79 goals per match

On the road the visitors concede an average of 1.87 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches

Both teams have 2 wins with 0 draws

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Juárez

The historical goal record is even at 3-3

Key Players

Óscar Estupiñán has scored 3 goals this season

José Luis Rodríguez contributed 1 goal and 2 assists

Juan Brunetta leads the visitors with 3 goals, 4 assists and a 7.81 rating

Goalkeepers

Sebastián Jurado plays in goal for Juárez with a 7.0 rating

Nahuel Guzmán starts in goal for the visitors with a 6.97 rating

Tigres UANL has kept 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Juárez has the home advantage at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

The average total goals at this venue is 3.0 per match

Both teams scored in 60% of Juárez's home matches

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