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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Atlético San Luis

09/27/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Atlético San Luis
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
PUASL

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.20
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Robert Morales not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Pedro Vite not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 67% available)

Atlético San Luis

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.38
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.37
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlético San Luis: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Santos Laguna: 2 goals (86', 90+6')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

31%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Only 18% of Atlético San Luis's goal threat is currently available
  • Pumas UNAM recently averaged 43% possession and 4.0 shots on target, playing a counter-oriented style
  • Pumas UNAM's home attack (1.67 goals) meets Atlético San Luis's weak away defense (1.67 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
  • Robert Morales and Pedro Vite are missing for Pumas UNAM, with only 68% of seasonal goal threat available
  • Pumas UNAM's scoring has slowed down to 1.0 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Atlético San Luis concede an average of 1.67 goals per away game
Overview

Pumas UNAM host Atlético San Luis

Liga MX match on September 27, 2026, 6:00 PM

Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Pumas UNAM sit in 12th place with 12 points

Atlético San Luis are in 16th place with 9 points

Form

Pumas UNAM form is DLWLD

They recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five games

Atlético San Luis form is DWLLW

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

Pumas UNAM's goal scoring has slowed down recently, averaging 1.0 goals

Statistics

Pumas UNAM average 1.67 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded at home

Atlético San Luis average 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded away

The model calculates 1.26 expected home goals and 1.17 expected away goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in total

3 wins for Pumas UNAM and 1 win for Atlético San Luis

Goal difference of 8:3 in favor of Pumas UNAM

The last meeting ended in a 2:0 victory for Pumas UNAM

Key Players

Juninho with 4 goals and Luciano Herrera with 1 goal and 1 assist

Uriel Antuna contributed 1 assist

David Rodríguez with 2 goals and 1 assist for the away side

Óscar Macías with 1 goal and 1 assist alongside Rafa Llorente with 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas played 9 matches with an average rating of 6.58

Manuel Gibran Lajud Bojalil played 3 matches with a rating of 6.77

Pumas UNAM kept 12 clean sheets so far this season

Atlético San Luis recorded 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match is played on grass at the Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

The average total goals at this venue is 2.4 per game

Both teams scored in 60% of matches played at this stadium

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