🇲🇽

Liga MX

Guadalajara - Querétaro

09/26/2026, 11:07 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Querétaro
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:0

10%

1:0

9%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
GUAQUE

Guadalajara

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.38
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.27
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.26
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.26
Roberto Alvarado not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

Querétaro

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.08
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with Santiago Sandoval starting: 2.5 goals/game, without him: 1.6 (10/8 games, last 30)

  • 2
    Guadalajara: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 3
    Querétaro: 3 cards per game (36 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

30%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Guadalajara scores more frequently in recent trends with 2.8 goals than their season average of 1.9
  • Surface strength: The home side is extremely strong on artificial turf with 7 wins from 10 matches
  • Defensive weakness: Querétaro concedes an average of 2.5 goals in away matches
Risk Factors
  • Roberto Alvarado is missing, leaving only 68% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Limited attacking power for Querétaro, averaging only 3.8 shots on target recently
  • Limited historical head-to-head data available in the dataset
Overview

Guadalajara host Querétaro at Estadio AKRON

Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 11:07 PM

A top clash between the second-placed and sixth-placed teams

Guadalajara sits in 2nd place with 18 points, just one point off the top

Form

Guadalajara is in good shape with three wins and two draws in their last five matches

Home form string is WDWWD

Querétaro has a form of DLWWD with two wins and two draws

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Guadalajara scores an average of 1.75 goals and concedes only 0.79 goals at home

Querétaro scores an average of 1.08 goals in away games

The away team concedes an average of 2.5 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches in the database

Two wins for Guadalajara and one win for Querétaro with one draw

The last direct meeting ended in a 2-1 win for Guadalajara on January 17, 2026

Key Players

Ricardo Marín has recorded 4 goals and 2 assists this season

Santiago Sandoval scored 3 goals in his last five matches

Santiago Homenchenko leads the visitors with 4 goals and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado starts in goal for Guadalajara

Guillermo Allison guards the net for Querétaro with a season rating of 7.03

Guadalajara kept 14 clean sheets this season compared to 8 by the visitors

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf

Guadalajara has a strong record on this surface with 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

The home surface record shows a goal difference of 26:6 on artificial turf

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.