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Tijuana – Atlas2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.57
Total xG
2.66
Atlas
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.43 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Gilberto Mora not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 40% of goal output missing (only 72% available) | ||
| Duk not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Arturo González on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf factor: Tijuana won 6 games on this surface, while Atlas lost both of their matches there
- Home strength vs. Away weakness: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals at home, while Atlas concedes 2.46 away
- Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 47%
Risks
- Tijuana is missing Gilberto Mora, reducing usual starting strength to 73%
- Atlas is without Duk and Arturo González, losing offensive options
- Low attacking output in recent games, averaging under 4 shots on target per team
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana47%
Draw28%
Atlas25%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw75%
Atlas or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Tijuana: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Atlas 3-1-4-2
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 26 A. Perez
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 11 F. González
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 18 E. Montiel
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
- 20 K. Zenon
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
Substitutes
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
- 197 J. Orduño Uribe
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 218 J. San Martín
- 58 A. González González
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 187 Sebastián Axael Mandujano
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