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Liga MX

Tijuana - Atlas

09/26/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Atlas
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TIJATL

Tijuana

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.11
Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.10
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Gilberto Mora not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 72% available)
Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

Atlas

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.44
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Duk not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Arturo GonzĂĄlez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)

  • 3
    Tijuana: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Artificial turf factor: Tijuana won 6 games on this surface, while Atlas lost both of their matches there
  • Home strength vs. Away weakness: Tijuana concedes only 0.57 goals at home, while Atlas concedes 2.46 away
  • Mathematical edge: The model calculates a home win probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Tijuana is missing Gilberto Mora, reducing usual starting strength to 73%
  • Atlas is without Duk and Arturo GonzĂĄlez, losing offensive options
  • Low attacking output in recent games, averaging under 4 shots on target per team
Overview

Tijuana host Atlas at the Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 5:00 AM

Both teams are level on 14 points, fighting to stay close to the top

Form

Tijuana shows mixed form with WLWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently recorded a 2-2 draw against Pachuca

Atlas also drew their last match and stands at WLDLD

Statistics

Tijuana averages 1.46 goals scored per game this season

The hosts' defense stands stable with 1.24 goals conceded per game

Atlas scores an average of 1.17 goals and concedes 1.58 per match

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches show an even balance

Both teams won 2 matches each, with 1 draw

The last match on March 5, 2026, ended in a 2-1 win for Atlas

Key Players

Alejandro GĂłmez impresses in defense with an average rating of 7.30

Luís André Leite Esteves is the biggest threat with 3 goals and 1 assist

Édgar Zaldívar has already contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season

Goalkeepers

Antonio RodrĂ­guez played 8 matches in goal with a rating of 7.15

Camilo Vargas also has 8 appearances, holding a rating of 6.85

Tijuana recorded 13 clean sheets this season, while Atlas managed 10

Influences

Tijuana recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses on artificial turf so far

Atlas lost both of their matches played on this unfamiliar surface

Tijuana's home record is extremely strong, conceding only 0.57 goals per game

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