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Liga MX

León - Juárez

09/28/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
León
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Juárez
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
LEÓJUÁ

León

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.91
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 18, 11 places gap)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.08
Daniel Arcila not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
40% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.41x league average)
-0.78
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.57
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 7, 11 places gap)
-0.11
José Luis Rodríguez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
Weak away record (0.5 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez: 55% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 11)

  • 2
    León with Díber Cambindo starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.4 (20/5 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Juárez: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

23%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Clear form advantage for León, currently scoring 1.4 goals per match while Juárez's scoring stalls at 0.8
  • Win probability of 63% for the home team according to the mathematical model
  • Juárez arrives as the bottom-placed team with only one win in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Juárez is severely weakened as José Luis Rodríguez (1 goal, 3 assists) is missing, leaving only 51% of regular goal threat available
  • León's defense concedes a season average of 1.85 goals per game
  • Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away match
Overview

León (7th place, 14 points) host Juárez (18th place, 3 points) at the Estadio León

Liga MX match on September 28, 2026, 3:00 AM

Matchup between the upper mid-table and the bottom-placed team

Form

Form of León: WDLWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Form of Juárez: LLLLW

León recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Juárez suffered 4 losses in their last 5 games and won only once

Statistics

León scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 1.85 goals this season

In home games, León scored 26 goals in 25 matches (average 1.04)

Juárez averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.74 goals conceded per game

Juárez scored 24 goals and conceded 36 goals in 16 away matches

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

León leads with 3 wins compared to 1 victory for Juárez

Goal difference stands at 7:5 in favor of León

The last encounter ended in a 3:1 victory for León

Key Players

Díber Cambindo is León's top threat with 3 goals this season and a 7.3 rating

Jordi Cortizo contributed 2 season goals with a rating of 7.31

For Juárez, Óscar Estupiñán stands out with 5 goals this season and 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

For Juárez, Sebastián Jurado starts in goal, holding a season rating of 7.11

Jurado showed strong recent form with a 7.50 rating over his last 5 matches

León's lineup features Irving Martínez in goal

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at the Estadio León

The stadium averages 3 goals per game with a BTTS rate of 40%

León scored 26 goals and conceded 26 goals in 25 home games this season

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