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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Toluca

09/26/2026, 10:50 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.6
Total xG
3.0
Toluca
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CATOL

Cruz Azul

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.00
Jeremy Márquez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

Toluca

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.19
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.19
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Federico Viñas not in squad (4 goals, 0 assists)
Jesús Gallardo not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Everardo del Villar not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jesús Angulo on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
34% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (15/12 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Cruz Azul: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

27%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Model prediction: Cruz Azul enter as slight favorites with a 40% home win probability
  • Sidelined power for Toluca: Key starters Federico Viñas (4G), Jesús Gallardo (1G), Everardo del Villar (1G), and Jesús Angulo (1G) are missing from the lineup
  • Offensive threat: Cruz Azul averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Cruz Azul's goal scoring drop: The offense averaged 1.6 goals recently compared to their 1.9 season average
  • Toluca's scoring surge: The visitors scored 2.8 goals on average recently, exceeding their 2.2 season average
  • Resilient away defense: Toluca conceded an average of only 1.31 goals in their away fixtures this season
Overview

Cruz Azul (5th place, 15 points) host Toluca (1st place, 19 points)

Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 11:50 PM at Estadio Banorte

Top-clash between the league leaders and the fifth-placed team

The mathematical model predicts a tight match with a slight edge for the home side

Form

Cruz Azul enter with form LWWWL following a recent defeat against Monterrey

Toluca travel with form WWWWL after a narrow loss to Santos Laguna

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The visitors secured 4 wins and 1 loss during the same period

Statistics

Cruz Azul average 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.09 goals conceded this season

Toluca boast a highly productive attack with an average of 1.86 goals scored per match

At home Cruz Azul score 1.75 goals on average and concede just 0.92

Toluca concede an average of 1.31 goals in their away fixtures

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head encounters Cruz Azul won once and 3 ended in a draw

The most recent meeting ended in a 1-1 draw on February 7, 2026

The overall goals stand at 5-4 in favor of Cruz Azul

Historically Cruz Azul hold a slight upper hand in this matchup

Key Players

José Paradela shines in midfield with 2 goals and 4 assists, holding a 7.41 rating

Carlos Rodríguez dictates the play with 5 assists and a stable rating of 7.16

Gabriel Fernández contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in the ongoing campaign

Alexis Vega stands out for the visitors with 2 goals, 2 assists, and a 7.53 rating

Helinho remains a constant threat with 2 goals and 2 assists this season

Paulinho is highly efficient scoring 2 goals in just 3 appearances

Goalkeepers

Andrés Gudiño is in goal for Cruz Azul, having made 1 season appearance so far

Luis García guards the net for Toluca with 5 season appearances to his name

Cruz Azul have recorded 12 clean sheets in total this season

Toluca kept a clean sheet 13 times during the current campaign

Influences

The match takes place at Estadio Banorte on a grass pitch

Venue stats suggest high-scoring fixtures with an average of 4.4 goals per match

The over 2.5 goals rate at this stadium stands at a high 80%

Both teams scored in 60% of the fixtures played at Estadio Banorte

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