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Liga MX

Necaxa - América

09/28/2026, 03:10 AM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Necaxa
1.1
Total xG
2.8
América
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
NECAMÉ

Necaxa

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.25
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 3, 14 places gap)
-0.18
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.15

América

Attack strength (1.7x league average)
+0.34
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.19
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.18
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 17, 14 places gap)
+0.11
Brian Rodríguez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Raphael Veiga on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.39
+0.39
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Necaxa: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (9 points lost)

  • 2
    América with Henry Martin starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/15 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)

  • 4
    Necaxa: 2.7 cards per game (28 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Necaxa: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

28%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Form divergence: América averaged 2.4 goals per match recently which is higher than its season average, while Necaxa's goal production stagnates at 0.8 goals
  • Tactical dominance: América averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's 3.4 shots on target
  • Mathematical advantage: The model predicts a home win chance of only 25% compared to a 48% away win probability for América
Risk Factors
  • Offensive weakness for Necaxa: The home team averaged only 3.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Weakened squad for América: Brian Rodríguez and Raphael Veiga are missing from the lineup, leaving only 75% of the usual active goals share available
Overview

Necaxa hosts América at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on September 28, 2026, 3:10 AM

Clash between 17th place with 8 points and 3rd place with 17 points

Clear favorites role for the visitors from América

Form

Necaxa is winless in 5 matches with a form of DLDLL

Most recently they suffered a 1:3 defeat against Atlético San Luis

América shows a stronger form of WWWLD

The visitors recently secured a 2:2 draw against Guadalajara

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Necaxa scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per match

América averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game

The visitors have kept 11 clean sheets so far this season

Necaxa managed only 4 clean sheets in 34 league games

Head-to-Head

Balanced head-to-head record with 1 win each and 2 draws in 4 matches

Goal difference stands at 5:6 from Necaxa's perspective

In the last encounter on January 31, 2026 América won 2:0

Two of the four meetings ended in a draw

Key Players

Julián Carranza has scored 5 goals this season with an average rating of 7.02

Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías contributes 1 goal and 1 assist this campaign

Henry Martin has recorded 3 goals and 2 assists for América

Miguel Borja has scored 3 goals in only 2 season appearances

Érick Sánchez stabilizes playmaking with 1 assist and a 7.09 rating

Goalkeepers

Luis Jiménez starts in goal for Necaxa with a season rating of 6.97

Rodolfo Cota guards the net for América with a rating of 7.25

América shows significantly more defensive stability with 11 clean sheets

Necaxa has recorded a total of 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

The stadium averages 2.8 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches at the Estadio Victoria

Necaxa concedes an average of 1.00 goals per game at home

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