🇲🇽

Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Puebla

09/27/2026, 03:10 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Puebla
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
TUPUE

Tigres UANL

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.39
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.27
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 9, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
Rodrigo Aguirre on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Puebla

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 16, 7 places gap)
+0.04

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL: 8 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Puebla with Brayan Garnica starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (10/9 games, last 30)

  • 3
    Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Defensive home advantage: Tigres concedes an average of only 0.59 goals at home, while Puebla allows 2.57 goals away on average
  • Offensive activity: Puebla averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Tigres averaging 4.0
  • Prediction trend: The mathematical model calculates a 39% probability for a home win with 1.38 expected goals for Tigres
Risk Factors
  • Tigres' goal production has stalled recently at just 1.0 goal per game compared to their season average of 1.9
  • Puebla's extreme away weakness with an average of 2.57 goals conceded per game on the road
Overview

Tigres UANL host Puebla at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Liga MX match on September 27, 2026, 3:10 AM

Tigres sit in 16th place with 7 points, while Puebla are in 9th place with 14 points

The home team is looking to climb out of the bottom of the table

Form

Tigres UANL carry a form of WDDDL

In their last five matches, Tigres recorded one win, three draws, and one loss

Puebla show a form of WLWLD with two wins, one draw, and two losses

Both teams registered a draw in their most recent match

Statistics

Tigres score an average of 1.79 goals and concede 1.05 goals per game this season

At home, Tigres are defensively solid, conceding only 0.59 goals on average

Puebla score an average of 1.00 goal and concede 2.00 goals per match

On the road, Puebla suffer an average of 2.57 goals conceded per game

Head-to-Head

Across the last four head-to-head meetings, Tigres won twice, Puebla won once, and there was one draw

Tigres scored nine goals in these matches while Puebla scored three

The last direct encounter on March 5, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Puebla

Key Players

Juan Brunetta has scored three goals and provided four assists for Tigres, averaging a 7.79 rating

Fernando Gorriarán contributed one goal with an average rating of 6.97

Mathías Tomás is a key midfielder for Puebla with two goals and a 7.16 rating

Carlos Baltazar has one goal and one assist with a 7.02 rating

Not nominated: Rodrigo Aguirre (3 goals, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Guzmán starts in goal for Tigres with an average rating of 6.91

Daniel Gutiérrez guards Puebla's goal with an average rating of 6.93

Tigres kept ten clean sheets at home this season

Puebla managed three clean sheets in their away games

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

The venue averages 3.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches played here

Tigres benefit from a strong defensive record at home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.