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Atlante – Monterrey4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.26
Total xG
2.67
Monterrey
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.57 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Ocampos on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Orbelín Pineda not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 46% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Monterrey averaged 6.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
- Monterrey scores more frequently currently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
- The mathematical model predicts an away win probability of 39%
Risks
- Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi, and Orbelín Pineda are missing, with only 63% of the goal threat available
- Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Atlante32%
Draw29%
Monterrey39%
Double chance
Atlante or draw61%
Monterrey or draw68%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
- Monterrey: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)
- Atlante: 6 of 9 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · Monterrey 4-2-3-1
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 10 L. Orellano
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 99 H. Cuypers
Substitutes
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 20 G. Adame
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 200 O. Gálvez Vidales
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