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Liga MX

Atlante - Monterrey

09/26/2026, 01:00 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlante
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Monterrey
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLMON

Atlante

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.57
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Declining form (0.6 vs 1 season average)
-0.12
Full strength squad available

Monterrey

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.03
Lucas Ocampos on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Diego Rossi on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
OrbelĂ­n Pineda not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
46% of goal output missing (only 63% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlante: 6 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)

  • 2
    Monterrey: 71% of all goals in the first half (12 of 17, last 12 games)

  • 3
    Atlante: 6 of 9 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Monterrey averaged 6.6 shots on target per game in recent matches
  • Monterrey scores more frequently currently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
  • The mathematical model predicts an away win probability of 39%
Risk Factors
  • Lucas Ocampos, Diego Rossi, and OrbelĂ­n Pineda are missing, with only 63% of the goal threat available
  • Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches
Overview

Atlante (14th place, 8 points) host Monterrey (10th place, 13 points) at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on September 26, 2026, 1:00 AM

Monterrey enters as slight favorites with a 39% win probability according to the model

Form

Atlante's form is LDDLD with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses recently

Monterrey's form is WLLDW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Atlante's goal production is stalling, averaging 0.6 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.0

Statistics

Atlante scored 8 goals and conceded 13 in 9 games

Monterrey scored 61 goals and conceded 58 in 38 games

The visitors concede an average of 2.06 goals in away games

Atlante conceded an average of 2.5 goals in their home games so far

Key Players

MartĂ­n Sarrafiore has 2 goals in 6 games with a 7.09 rating

Jhojan Julio recorded 1 goal and 3 assists with a 7.04 rating

L. Calzadilla contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in 8 games

JesĂșs Corona stands out with 1 goal, 2 assists, and a 7.20 rating

Hugo Cuypers scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in 7 appearances

Óliver Torres averages a 7.37 rating over 8 games

Goalkeepers

Óscar JimĂ©nez played 9 games with a 7.16 rating and kept 1 clean sheet

Esteban Andrada has 2 appearances with a 7.53 rating and his team kept 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on grass at Estadio Banorte

Stadium statistics show an average of 3.6 goals per game

In 3 out of 5 games both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored

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