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Liga MX

Santos Laguna - Pachuca

09/27/2026, 03:05 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Santos Laguna
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Pachuca
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
SLPAC

Santos Laguna

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.27
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 11, 6 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Pachuca

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 17, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Oussama Idrissi on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Carlos AdriĂĄn SĂĄnchez Nava on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
ElĂ­as Montiel not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Pachuca: 2.9 cards per game (28 yellows, 4 reds in 11 games)

  • 3
    Santos Laguna: 4 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Santos Laguna with only 17% of typical goal-scoring contribution active on the pitch
  • Tactical strength from Pachuca who recently averaged an impressive 6.4 shots on target per match
  • Improved goal scoring form for both teams currently averaging 1.8 goals per match compared to their season averages
Risk Factors
  • Pachuca is missing unlisted key players Oussama Idrissi (1 goal, 2 assists), Carlos AdriĂĄn SĂĄnchez Nava (0 goals, 2 assists), and ElĂ­as Montiel (1 goal, 1 assist)
  • Highly balanced mathematical model projecting a tight encounter with 34% home win and 36% away win probabilities
Overview

Santos Laguna (17th place, 7 points) host Pachuca (11th place, 12 points) at the Estadio Nuevo Corona

Liga MX matchup on September 27, 2026, 5:05 AM

Both teams aim to carry their recent positive momentum into this fixture

Form

Santos Laguna is on an upward trend with two consecutive victories (Form: LDLWW)

Pachuca remains unbeaten in their last five matches (Form: DDWWD)

Santos Laguna secured 2 wins in their last 5 outings, while Pachuca earned 2 wins and 3 draws

Statistics

Santos Laguna scores an average of 1.24 goals and concedes 1.94 goals per match

Pachuca averages 1.35 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded

Santos Laguna shows much better defensive stability at home, conceding only 1.10 goals per game

Head-to-Head

4 direct encounters recorded between these sides

Pachuca leads the head-to-head record with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Santos Laguna and 1 draw

The latest meeting on April 12, 2026, ended in a high-scoring 4-2 win for Pachuca

Key Players

Ezequiel Bullaude is in great shape, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 appearances for the hosts

SalomĂłn RondĂłn is the key attacker for Pachuca with 10 goals in 9 matches this season

Fran Villalba has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists to Santos Laguna's campaign

Goalkeepers

Carlos Acevedo stars in goal for Santos Laguna with a high season rating of 7.42

Carlos AgustĂ­n Moreno Luna protects Pachuca's goal, averaging a 7.12 rating and having scored 1 goal this season

Santos Laguna has registered 6 clean sheets compared to Pachuca's 10

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Nuevo Corona

Santos Laguna scores an average of 1.25 goals when playing at home

Pachuca averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded in away games

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