DumbleScore
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Liga MX10/12/2026, 01:15 AM

Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul3 : 3

Why the model thinks so

Pumas UNAM
1.03
Total xG
2.57
Cruz Azul
1.55
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorPumas UNAMCruz Azul
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)−0.92
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean+0.47
High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)+0.41+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)−0.15
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)−0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)+0.09
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean−0.09
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)−0.07
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)+0.04
Luciano Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
José Paradela on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Form gap: Cruz Azul won 3 of their last 5 games (WWWLD) while Pumas UNAM won only 1 (LWLDL)
  • Tactical output: Cruz Azul averaged 7.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model support: The calculation gives Cruz Azul a 48% win probability

Risks

  • Scoring drop: Pumas UNAM recently averaged 1.2 goals per game compared to their 1.7 season average
  • Draw chance: The model indicates a 29% probability of a draw

All probabilities

Result
Pumas UNAM24%
Draw29%
Cruz Azul48%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw52%
Cruz Azul or draw76%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
3:3
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Cruz Azul: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')

Lineups

Pumas UNAM 4-4-2 · Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1

Pumas UNAM
  • 1 K. Navas Gamboa
  • 7 R. LĂłpez Quiñones
  • 6 N. da Silva
  • 5 R. Duarte SĂĄnchez
  • 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
  • 21 C. Antuna Romero
  • 8 A. Carrasquilla AlcĂĄzar
  • 45 P. Vite Uca
  • 10 C. Huerta Valera
  • 31 R. Morales
  • 23 O. Vieira dos Santos JĂșnior
Cruz Azul
  • 23 K. Mier Robles
  • 22 J. Rodarte BarragĂĄn
  • 4 W. Ditta PĂ©rez
  • 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
  • 3 O. Campos Chagoya
  • 16 Á. MĂĄrquez Castañeda
  • 6 É. Lira MĂ©ndez
  • 19 C. RodrĂ­guez GĂłmez
  • 7 N. Ibåñez
  • 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
  • 21 G. FernĂĄndez Leites
Substitutes
  • 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
  • 14 L. Herrera
  • 19 J. Rivas GutiĂ©rrez
  • 24 A. Leone Larios
  • 15 I. Luna LĂłpez
  • 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
  • 20 S. Trigos Nava
  • 26 ?. Rico Reyes
  • 30 S. LĂłpez LĂłpez
  • 34 ?. Azuaje GarcĂ­a
  • 22 A. Medina Camacho
  • 35 P. Lara Nevarez
  • 199 K. Carranza Anguiano
  • 202 J. Castillejos
  • 184 M. SĂĄnchez ValdĂ©z
  • 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
  • 18 L. Romero
  • 20 J. Paradela
  • 33 G. Piovi
  • 12 A. Montes Castro
  • 17 A. GarcĂ­a Moreno
  • 2 A. Mozo RodrĂ­guez
  • 10 A. Montaño
  • 11 O. Ebere
  • 60 A. Castro Sevilla
  • 14 J. Calero Sierra

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