Match report →
América – Monterrey1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
América
1.75
Total xG
2.96
Monterrey
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.23 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Brian Rodríguez not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Raphael Veiga not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dagoberto Espinoza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 44% available) | ||
| Lucas Ocampos on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Hugo Cuypers not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Corona not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Óliver Torres not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Orbelín Pineda not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Squad impact for Monterrey: 0% of usual goal danger available, with Lucas Ocampos, Hugo Cuypers, Jesús Corona, Óliver Torres, and Orbelín Pineda missing from the lineup
- Offensive trend: América recently raised their scoring output to 2.6 goals per match with a calculated 49% win probability
- Tactical activity: América averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Squad impact for América: Brian Rodríguez, Raphael Veiga, and Dagoberto Espinoza miss out, with only 44% of goal threat available
- Away defensive concern: Monterrey concede an average of 2.06 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
América49%
Draw26%
Monterrey25%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
América or draw75%
Monterrey or draw51%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Henry Martin starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (11/14 games, last 30)
- Monterrey: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Monterrey 4-1-4-1
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 14 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 26 C. Borja González
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 99 H. Cuypers
Substitutes
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 194 C. Reyes Bermúdez
- 10 L. Orellano
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