Match report →
Juárez – Tijuana1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.28
Total xG
2.76
Tijuana
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Gilberto Mora not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact: Juárez's starting lineup represents only 12% of seasonal goal danger
- Model prediction: The calculation model favors Tijuana with a 40% win probability (31% for Juárez)
- Tactical metrics: Tijuana averaged 4.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to 2.8 for Juárez
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Tijuana concede an average of 2.36 goals per away match
- Juárez form trend: The home team's goal production stagnated recently with an average of 0.8 goals in the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Juárez31%
Draw28%
Tijuana40%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Juárez or draw60%
Tijuana or draw69%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: 55% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 11)
- Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Juárez: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (9 points lost)
- Tijuana: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Juárez 5-3-2 · Tijuana 4-1-4-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Substitutes
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 14 E. López Castro
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 26 A. Perez
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
- 11 F. González
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