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Liga MX10/11/2026, 01:00 AM

Atlas – Guadalajara1 : 1

Why the model thinks so

Atlas
1.24
Total xG
2.76
Guadalajara
1.52
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAtlasGuadalajara
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)−0.75
High-scoring league (3 goals/match)+0.45+0.45
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean+0.43
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean−0.21
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)+0.20
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)−0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)−0.03
Arturo GonzĂĄlez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 80% available)
Santiago Sandoval on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
14% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)

Key factors

  • The model calculates a 42% win probability for Guadalajara with expected goals of 1.52 vs 1.24 for Atlas
  • Atlas shows an improved goalscoring rate recently averaging 1.6 goals compared to 1.4 across the season
  • Guadalajara presents consistent attacking numbers with an average of 1.75 goals per game

Risks

  • Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away match
  • Santiago Sandoval is absent from Guadalajara's starting lineup (active goals share 87%)

All probabilities

Result
Atlas30%
Draw28%
Guadalajara42%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Atlas or draw58%
Guadalajara or draw70%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%

Most likely scores

1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%

Lineups

Atlas 3-4-2-1 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1

Atlas
  • 12 C. Vargas Gil
  • 19 A. FrĂ­as
  • 44 J. SĂĄnchez Purata
  • 16 M. Valenzuela
  • 3 J. SĂĄnchez Ramos
  • 18 E. Montiel
  • 15 P. RamĂ­rez Barboza
  • 10 L. Leite Esteves
  • 20 K. Zenon
  • 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
  • 9 F. MonzĂłn
Guadalajara
  • 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
  • 23 D. Aguirre
  • 16 L. Rey MejĂ­a
  • 3 D. Campillo del Campo
  • 37 R. Ledezma
  • 28 F. GonzĂĄlez Pineda
  • 11 B. Gutierrez
  • 25 R. Alvarado HernĂĄndez
  • 17 R. MarĂ­n SĂĄnchez
  • 9 Á. SepĂșlveda SĂĄnchez
Substitutes
  • 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
  • 22 A. SĂĄnchez Montes De Oca
  • 26 A. Rocha GonzĂĄlez
  • 27 V. Hugo RĂ­os de Alba
  • 23 S. HernĂĄndez Flores
  • 203 JosĂ© MartĂ­n
  • 58 A. GonzĂĄlez GonzĂĄlez
  • 5 J. RodrĂ­guez HernĂĄndez
  • 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
  • 28 M. Capasso
  • 10 E. Álvarez
  • 7 L. Romo BarrĂłn
  • 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
  • 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
  • 2 J. Castillo PĂ©rez
  • 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
  • 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
  • 33 J. Carrillo RodrĂ­guez
  • 57 J. Hernandez
  • 59 C. Inda Becerra

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