Match report →
Puebla – León1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.14
Total xG
2.48
León
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | León |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.44x league average) | −0.94 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Ignacio Maestro Puch on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Baltazar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Daniel Arcila on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 62% of goal output missing (only 71% available) |
Key factors
- Form advantage León: The visitors travel with positive momentum (DLWDW), while Puebla have struggled recently (LWLDL)
- Tactical edge: León averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Puebla's average of only 3.4
- Historical edge: León won the last direct encounter 1-0 away and are slight favorites with a 40% win probability
Risks
- Severe away weakness: León concede a massive average of 4.11 goals per away match this season
- Offensive slump: Puebla averaged only 0.4 goals in recent games, significantly below their season average of 1.1
- Key absences: León are weakened offensively without the non-nominated Daniel Arcila (4 goals) and Jordi Cortizo (2 goals)
All probabilities
Result
Puebla30%
Draw30%
León40%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
Puebla or draw60%
León or draw70%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
9%
1:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Puebla with Brayan Garnica starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (11/8 games, last 30)
Lineups
Puebla 4-2-3-1 · León 4-1-4-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
León
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 18 E. Guerra
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
Substitutes
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 23 O. García
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 33 A. Villegas
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