Match report →
Tigres UANL – Toluca3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Tigres UANL
1.21
Total xG
2.84
Toluca
1.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigres UANL | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.44 | +0.44 |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.27 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.02 | |
| Rodrigo Aguirre on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Federico Viñas on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Everardo del Villar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical model favors Toluca with a 45% win probability (expected goals: 1.62 vs 1.21)
- Toluca showed strong offensive power, averaging 3.0 goals and 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Tigres UANL attack struggling, averaging just 0.7 goals per match recently compared to their season average of 1.9
Risks
- Tigres UANL features a strong home defense, conceding just 0.59 goals per game across 27 home matches
- Rodrigo Aguirre missing for the home side leaves only 74% active goals share in the starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Tigres UANL27%
Draw28%
Toluca45%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw55%
Toluca or draw73%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (16/11 games, last 30)
- Tigres UANL: opponent scores first in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Tigres UANL: 38% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 · Toluca 4-2-3-1
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 15 A. Franco
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 8 N. Castro
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
Substitutes
- 14 J. Garza García
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 34 H. Koifman
- 184 I. Aceves Flores
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 25 E. López
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 1 H. González Durán
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 19 S. Simón
- 29 J. Díaz Price
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