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Pachuca – Necaxa3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.57
Total xG
3.09
Necaxa
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Pachuca won all 4 previous head-to-head matches against Necaxa
- Away defensive weakness: Necaxa concede an average of 2.35 goals per away match
- Tactical edge: Pachuca averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches compared to Necaxa's 3.8
Risks
- Pachuca face a long gap between matches with 14 days since their last competitive game
- Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava is missing from the lineup, leaving 84% active goal share
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca38%
Draw27%
Necaxa35%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw65%
Necaxa or draw62%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (10 points lost)
- Pachuca: 3 cards per game (29 yellows, 4 reds in 11 games)
- Necaxa: 2.8 cards per game (29 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- Necaxa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 12 total)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Necaxa 4-1-4-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 12 S. Santos
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 9 J. Carranza
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 206 T. Hernández
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 181 J. Orantes
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