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Querétaro – Atlante2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
1.53
Total xG
2.98
Atlante
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.45 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form and table advantage: Querétaro (5th place, 3 wins in last 5 games) face 15th-placed Atlante
- Attack improvement: Querétaro recently scored 1.6 goals per game, higher than their season average of 1.3
- Model prediction: The mathematical model calculates a 62% probability for both teams to score
Risks
- Away defensive weakness: Atlante concede an average of 1.6 goals per away game with 0 clean sheets on the road
- Passive tactical metric: Querétaro averaged only 39% possession and 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro38%
Draw27%
Atlante35%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw65%
Atlante or draw62%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 7 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 10 games)
- Querétaro: 3.1 cards per game (37 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
- Atlante: 6 of 10 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · Atlante 5-3-2
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 11 M. Coronel
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Substitutes
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 23 J. Robles
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
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