Match report →
Atlético San Luis – Santos Laguna1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.43
Total xG
2.60
Santos Laguna
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.00 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Historical dominance: Atlético San Luis won all 4 past head-to-head matches with a 12:4 goal aggregate
- Away defensive struggles: Santos Laguna concede an average of 3.14 goals per away match
- Model prediction: The calculated probability favors a home win at 42%
Risks
- Limited goal threat: Only 24% of the seasonal goal production is active for the home side
- No away clean sheets: Santos Laguna failed to keep a clean sheet in all 14 away matches
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis42%
Draw29%
Santos Laguna29%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw71%
Santos Laguna or draw58%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Atlético San Luis: 39% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 18)
- Santos Laguna: 38% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 13)
- Santos Laguna: 4 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Santos Laguna 5-4-1
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 26 R. Sordo
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
Substitutes
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
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