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Premier League

Aston Villa - West Ham United

03/22/2026, 02:15 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
1.7
Total xG
2.8
West Ham United
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
AVWHU

Aston Villa

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 18, 14 places gap)
+0.11
Emiliano BuendĂ­a on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)

West Ham United

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.58
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 4, 14 places gap)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Crysencio Summerville not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

27%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Aston Villa's home strength (1.31 home goals scored, 0.94 conceded) against West Ham's weak away defense (1.8 away goals conceded)
  • Aston Villa's dominance in head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 0 losses in 5 games
  • West Ham's improved current offensive output (1.5 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.3 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa faces an increased fatigue risk with only 3 days since their last match
  • Both teams show a low average number of shots on target (Aston Villa 3.0, West Ham 3.2)
Overview

Aston Villa (4th place, 51 points) host West Ham United (18th place, 29 points) at Villa Park. The Premier League match takes place on March 22, 2026, 3:15 PM. Aston Villa aim to solidify their European ambitions, while West Ham need crucial points in the relegation battle. The mathematical analysis identifies Aston Villa as favorites with a win probability of 48%

Form

Aston Villa's form across all competitions shows LLWLW (2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their last match was a 2-0 win against LOSC Lille. West Ham's form in all competitions is DLWDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). They recently drew 1-1 against Manchester City. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.31 goals at home and concedes 0.94 goals per home game. West Ham scores an average of 1.2 goals away, but concedes 1.8 goals per away game. The Villa Park statistics show an average of 2.8 goals per match. In 3 of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored. Aston Villa's goal production is currently stagnant (average 1.0 goals), while West Ham United is currently scoring more frequently (average 1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals)

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa dominated with 3 wins and 2 draws. West Ham failed to win any of these games. The goal difference stands at 9:6 in favor of Aston Villa. Aston Villa won the last encounter 3:2 on December 14, 2025

Key Players

For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers with 8 goals and 5 assists, Ollie Watkins with 8 goals and 1 assist, and John McGinn with 3 goals and 2 assists are key players. John McGinn shows a stable form trend. For West Ham, Jarrod Bowen with 8 goals and 6 assists, Mateus Fernandes with 3 goals and 3 assists, and Tomáơ Souček with 4 goals stand out

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez of Aston Villa made 26 season appearances and kept 8 clean sheets. Mads Hermansen of West Ham United played in 10 season games and achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

Aston Villa shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.31 goals scored and only 0.94 goals conceded per home game. An average of 2.8 goals are scored per match at Villa Park. In 3 of 5 games at Villa Park, both teams scored, and in 2 of 5 games, there were more than 2.5 goals. The surface is grass

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