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Santos Laguna – Querétaro5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santos Laguna
1.60
Total xG
3.00
Querétaro
1.40
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos Laguna | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Santos Laguna won 4 of their last 5 games
- Shots on target: Santos Laguna averaged 6.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Querétaro 4.4 per game
- xG: Santos Laguna recorded 2.10 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.6 goals per game
Risks
- Table: Querétaro is 4th with 20 points from 10 games, Santos Laguna is 14th with 13 points from 11 games
- Away: Querétaro scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded 0.4 per game in 5 away league games this season
All probabilities
Result
Santos Laguna41%
Draw27%
Querétaro32%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw68%
Querétaro or draw59%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Querétaro: 3.2 cards per game (38 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
- Santos Laguna: 40% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 15)
Lineups
Santos Laguna 3-4-3 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
- 10 E. Bullaude
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 11 M. Coronel
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 24 B. Duarte
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
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