Match report →
Atlante – Pumas UNAM1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.79
Total xG
2.90
Pumas UNAM
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Luciano Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 99% available) | ||
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Shots: Atlante registered 5.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Pumas UNAM 4.8 per game
- Defense: Pumas UNAM conceded 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 games and 1.6 per game away in the league this season
Risks
- Table: Pumas UNAM are 12th in the league this season with 13 points from 11 games, Atlante are 16th with 11 points
- Attack: Pumas UNAM scored 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 games, Atlante averaged 1.2 per game in the last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Atlante52%
Draw26%
Pumas UNAM22%
Double chance
Atlante or draw78%
Pumas UNAM or draw48%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 11 games)
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · Pumas UNAM 4-4-2
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Substitutes
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 14 L. Herrera
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 202 J. Castillejos
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