Match report →
Guadalajara – Tigres UANL1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
1.55
Total xG
2.82
Tigres UANL
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Ricardo Marín on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Guadalajara score 1.8 goals per game at home in the league, Tigres UANL score 0.67 away
- Table: Guadalajara are 5th with 19 points from 11 games, Tigres UANL are 13th with 13 points
- Possession: Guadalajara averaged 58.4% possession over their last 5 games, Tigres UANL 48.2%
Risks
- Head-to-head: Tigres UANL won 2 of the last 5 meetings against Guadalajara, with 2 draws
- xG: Tigres UANL generated 1.58 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara42%
Draw28%
Tigres UANL30%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw70%
Tigres UANL or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-4-2-1 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 15 A. Franco
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 11 J. Brunetta
Substitutes
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 5 B. González
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 6 O. Govea García
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 59 C. Inda Becerra
- 56 A. Chavez
- 46 C. Palomares
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 14 J. Garza García
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 34 H. Koifman
- 29 J. Contreras
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