Match report →
Toluca – Atlético San Luis1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
2.22
Total xG
3.17
Atlético San Luis
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +1.08 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.61 | |
| Attack weakness (0.8x league average) | −0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.33 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Nicolás Castro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Felipe Mora on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Toluca scores 3 goals per game at home in the league this season, Atlético San Luis concedes 2 per game away
- Table: Toluca is 3rd in the league with 20 points from 11 games, Atlético San Luis 15th with 12 points
- Head-to-head: Toluca won 3 of the 4 meetings so far, Atlético San Luis none with 1 draw
Risks
- Defense: Toluca allowed 1.28 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 2.2 goals per game
- Away: Atlético San Luis scores 1.6 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Toluca65%
Draw21%
Atlético San Luis14%
Double chance
Toluca or draw86%
Atlético San Luis or draw35%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (15/13 games, last 30)
- Atlético San Luis: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Toluca 4-2-3-1 · Atlético San Luis 3-4-3
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 19 S. Simón
- 25 E. López
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
Substitutes
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 8 N. Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
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