Match report →
León – América3 : 5
Why the model thinks so
León
1.33
Total xG
2.86
América
1.53
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | América |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.34 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| Fernando Beltrán on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 85% available) | ||
| Raphael Veiga on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: América is 1st in the league with 2.2 goals per game, León is 6th with 1.36 goals per game
- Shots: América had 7.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, León 5.2 shots on target per game
- Head-to-head: América won 2 of the 4 previous meetings, with 2 draws and 0 wins for León
Risks
- Home/Away: León conceded 0.8 goals per game at home in the league, América 1.6 goals per game away
- Attack: León scored 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
León32%
Draw28%
América40%
Double chance
León or draw60%
América or draw68%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Henry Martin starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (12/13 games, last 30)
- León: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- América: 8 of 28 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
León 4-1-4-1 · América 4-2-3-1
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 18 E. Guerra
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 13 D. Arcila
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 14 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Substitutes
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 33 A. Villegas
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 21 S. Londoño González
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 26 C. Borja González
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 32 M. Vázquez García
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