Match report →
Cruz Azul – Juárez5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
2.07
Total xG
3.12
Juárez
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.3x league average) | +1.28 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.68 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.54 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.49 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 7, 11 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 18, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| José Paradela not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Fernández on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jeremy Márquez on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Cruz Azul scores 2 goals per game at home in the league, Juárez concedes 3 per game away
- Table: Cruz Azul ranks 7th in the league with 17 points, Juárez is 18th with 4 points
- Shots on target: Cruz Azul averages 7 shots on target per game in recent matches, Juárez 3.6 per game
Risks
- Defense: Cruz Azul concedes 2 goals per game at home in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul59%
Draw23%
Juárez17%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw83%
Juárez or draw41%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.538%
Under 3.562%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cruz Azul: 8 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Atlético San Luis: 2 goals (81', 90+3')
- Cruz Azul: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 5-3-2 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Cruz Azul
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 33 G. Piovi
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 10 A. Montaño
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 203 L. Núñez
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 14 E. López Castro
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 18 L. Romero
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 55 Rogelio González
- 11 O. Ebere
- 60 A. Castro Sevilla
- 14 J. Calero Sierra
- 6 Monchu
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
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