Match report →
Tijuana – Puebla0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.57
Total xG
2.63
Puebla
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Gilberto Mora not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Ignacio Maestro Puch on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Baltazar not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Tijuana scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, Puebla concedes 1.17 per game away
- Attack: Tijuana generated 2.02 xG per game in the last 5 games, Puebla 0.63 xG per game
Risks
- Personnel: G. Mora Zambrano is missing, having scored 5 of the 15 league goals by Tijuana players this season (33%)
- Head-to-head: Puebla won 2 of the 4 meetings since November 2024, Tijuana 1
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana48%
Draw28%
Puebla24%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw76%
Puebla or draw52%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: 39% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 18)
- Tijuana: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Puebla with Brayan Garnica starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (12/7 games, last 30)
Lineups
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Puebla 4-2-3-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 11 F. González
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
Substitutes
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 195 Á. de la Rosa
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
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