Match report →
Necaxa – Atlas0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Necaxa
1.68
Total xG
2.89
Atlas
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- xG: Necaxa averages 1.77 xG per game in the league this season, Atlas 1.37 xG per game
- Attack: Atlas scores 2.2 goals per game away in the league this season, Necaxa concedes 2.0 goals per game at home
Risks
- Table: Atlas is 6th in the league after 11 games with 18 points, Necaxa 17th with 9 points
- Form: Necaxa went winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses, Atlas had 1 win and 3 draws
All probabilities
Result
Necaxa47%
Draw27%
Atlas26%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw74%
Atlas or draw53%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Necaxa: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Necaxa: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Necaxa 4-1-4-1 · Atlas 4-2-2-2
Necaxa
- 181 J. Orantes
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 9 J. Carranza
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 19 A. Frías
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 18 E. Montiel
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 20 K. Zenon
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Substitutes
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 210 J. Palacios Pulido
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 58 A. González González
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 28 M. Capasso
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