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Monterrey – Pachuca2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.65
Total xG
2.74
Pachuca
1.09
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean | +0.52 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| Óliver Torres on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Carlos Adrián Sánchez Nava on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Monterrey averages 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Possession: Monterrey averaged 56.8% possession over their last 5 matches
- Table: Monterrey sits 12th with 14 points from 10 games, Pachuca 14th with 13 points from 11 games
Risks
- Head-to-head: Pachuca won 4 of the last 5 meetings with Monterrey
- Away: Pachuca concedes 0.5 goals per game away in the league this season
- Form: Pachuca won 2 of their last 5 matches, Monterrey 1
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey49%
Draw27%
Pachuca24%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw76%
Pachuca or draw51%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.2 cards per game (32 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Pachuca: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Necaxa: 2 goals (84', 87')
- Monterrey: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
- Pachuca: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 19)
- Pachuca: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-2-3-1 · Pachuca 4-4-1-1
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 99 H. Cuypers
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 6 M. Isaís
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 10 L. Orellano
- 12 S. Santos
- 19 I. Hernandez Vargas
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 221 Ulises Martínez
- 207 Ian Josué Zavala Osorio
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