Match report →
Juárez – Atlante0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.30
Total xG
2.72
Atlante
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.50 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Atlante is 16th with 11 points from 12 games, Juárez is 18th with 4 points from 12 games
- Form: Juárez lost 10 of 12 league games this season, Atlante 5 of 12
- Shots: Atlante averaged 6.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, Juárez 4.2
Risks
- Form: Atlante has 1 win and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
- Away: Atlante concedes 1.67 goals per game away in the league this season with 1 win in 6 games
All probabilities
Result
Juárez33%
Draw29%
Atlante38%
Double chance
Juárez or draw62%
Atlante or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 1.42, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Juárez: 3.1 cards per game (33 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Atlante: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Juárez 4-2-3-1 · Atlante 5-3-2
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Substitutes
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 24 B. Díaz Jáuregui
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 14 E. López Castro
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 250 Brayan Molina
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 13 M. García Pardo
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
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