Premier League
Everton - Chelsea
03/21/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.4
1.8
1:1
11%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Everton
Chelsea
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
25%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Chelsea is the more likely winner according to mathematical analysis with 43% probability and an average of 1.81 predicted goals
- Chelsea's seasonal offensive strength with an average of 1.77 goals per game surpasses Everton's 1.13 goals per game
- Chelsea's historical dominance in head-to-head matches with three wins and a goal difference of 9:2 in the last five encounters
Risk Factors
- Chelsea has recently suffered three consecutive losses, indicating a weaker current form
- Everton's home offense is not very strong, with an average of 1.12 goals per home game
- Hill Dickinson Stadium has a low Over 2.5 goals rate (1 out of 5 games)
Overview
Everton (8th place, 43 points) host Chelsea (6th place, 48 points) at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Premier League match on March 21, 2026, 6:30 PM. Chelsea aims to close the gap to the top, while Everton seeks to solidify their position in the upper mid-table.
Form
Everton's recent form across all competitions shows LLWWL in their last five games, with two wins and three losses. Their last appearance ended in a loss. Chelsea's form in their last five matches is WWLLL, also with two wins and three losses. They have suffered three consecutive defeats recently. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Everton averages 1.13 goals scored per game and concedes 1.17 goals this season. At home, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded. Chelsea is offensively stronger, averaging 1.77 goals per game and also conceding 1.17 goals. Away from home, Chelsea averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded. At Hill Dickinson Stadium, the last five matches have seen an average of 2.0 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and only 1 out of 5 games having over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Chelsea has shown clear dominance. Chelsea won three games, Everton one, and one match ended in a draw. The goal difference of 9:2 clearly favors Chelsea. The last encounter on December 13, 2025, saw Chelsea win 2-0 away.
Key Players
For Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall stands out with 6 goals and 3 assists in 23 season appearances. Iliman Ndiaye recorded 5 goals and 3 assists in 24 appearances, with a rising form trend. James Garner contributed 2 goals and 5 assists in 30 games. For Chelsea, JoĆ£o Pedro is the top scorer with 14 goals and 5 assists in 30 games. Cole Palmer scored 9 goals and 1 assist in 19 games, while Enzo FernĆ”ndez registered 8 goals and 3 assists in 29 games. Not nominated for Chelsea: Reece James (2G/4A), Trevoh Chalobah (3G/0A).
Goalkeepers
Everton's Jordan Pickford kept 10 clean sheets this season. Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert SƔnchez recorded 9 clean sheets.
Influences
Everton has a slight home advantage at Hill Dickinson Stadium, with an average of 1.12 home goals scored and 1.19 home goals conceded. The home record at the stadium shows an average of 2.0 goals per game. The surface is grass.