Match report →
Atlas – América2 : 5
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.25
Total xG
2.86
América
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | América |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.71x league average) | +1.21 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.34 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.34 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Kevin Zenón on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Henry Martin on the bench (7 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Raphael Veiga not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Dagoberto Espinoza on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 78% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: América score 2.67 goals per game away in the league, Atlas 1 goal per game at home
- Shots: América averaged 8.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Atlas 4.2
- Standings: América lead the league in 1st place with 24 points, Atlas are 5th with 21 points
Risks
- Defense: América conceded 2.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Atlas scored 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Atlas28%
Draw28%
América44%
Double chance
Atlas or draw56%
América or draw72%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.25 : 1.61, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
2:5
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlas: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Atlas: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Atlas 4-2-2-2 · América 4-2-3-1
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 19 A. Frías
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 18 E. Montiel
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 58 A. González González
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 14 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
Substitutes
- 20 K. Zenon
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 28 M. Capasso
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 9 H. Martín Mex
- 217 Í. da Conceição
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