Match report →
Pachuca – Cruz Azul1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.50
Total xG
2.88
Cruz Azul
1.38
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.36x league average) | +0.98 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2 season average) | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 6, 10 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 16, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| José Paradela not in squad (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Ibáñez on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Pachuca concedes 2.2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Cruz Azul scores 2 per game away
- Shots: Pachuca averaged 18 shots per game in recent matches, Cruz Azul 18.2 shots per game
Risks
- Table: Cruz Azul is 6th in the league with 20 points from 12 games, Pachuca is 16th with 13 points
- Head-to-head: Cruz Azul won 3 of the 4 direct meetings against Pachuca, Pachuca won 1
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca39%
Draw28%
Cruz Azul33%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw67%
Cruz Azul or draw61%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.50 : 1.38, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.4 cards per game (34 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Cruz Azul: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Pachuca: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Pachuca: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Necaxa: 2 goals (84', 87')
- Pachuca: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Cruz Azul 3-4-2-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Cruz Azul
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 33 G. Piovi
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 12 S. Santos
- 2 S. Barreto
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 221 Ulises Martínez
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 18 L. Romero
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 55 Rogelio González
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 60 A. Castro Sevilla
- 14 J. Calero Sierra
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →