Match report →
Toluca – Tijuana2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
2.43
Total xG
3.43
Tijuana
1.00
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +1.22 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Federico Viñas on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Mourad El Ghezouani on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Adonis Preciado on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ignacio Rivero on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Alan Vega on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 67% of goal output missing (only 27% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Toluca scores 2.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Tijuana concedes 2 per game away
- Table: Toluca is 3rd in the league with 21 points, Tijuana is 10th with 16 points
- Head-to-head: Toluca won 3 of the 4 meetings against Tijuana, with 1 draw
Risks
- Form: Toluca has 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in its last 5 matches
- Defense: Toluca conceded 2 goals per game in its last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Toluca68%
Draw19%
Tijuana13%
Double chance
Toluca or draw87%
Tijuana or draw32%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.43 : 1.00, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
2:0
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (16/12 games, last 30)
- Tijuana: 5 of 15 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
Lineups
Toluca 4-2-3-1 · Tijuana 5-4-1
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 8 N. Castro
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 34 F. Boya
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 202 J. González Cera
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
Substitutes
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 1 H. González Durán
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 19 S. Simón
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 11 F. González
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