Match report →
Tigres UANL – León0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Tigres UANL
1.60
Total xG
2.78
León
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigres UANL | León |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.48 | +0.48 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.40 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| Juan Brunetta not in squad (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Aguirre on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 72% of goal output missing (only 30% available) | ||
| Díber Cambindo on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jordi Cortizo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Tigres UANL average 1.8 goals per game at home in the league this season, León average 1 goal per game away
- Defense: Tigres UANL concede 1 goal per game at home in the league this season, León concede 1.33 per game away
Risks
- Table: León are 7th in the league this season with 18 points, Tigres UANL are 13th with 14 points
- Attack: León averaged 1.8 goals per game in their last 5 games, Tigres UANL averaged 1 goal per game
All probabilities
Result
Tigres UANL46%
Draw28%
León26%
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw74%
León or draw54%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.60 : 1.17, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 7 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- León: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- León: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
- León: 39% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 18)
- León: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 · León 4-1-4-1
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 15 A. Franco
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 34 H. Koifman
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 18 E. Guerra
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 13 D. Arcila
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
Substitutes
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 184 I. Aceves Flores
- 192 E. Ávila
- 29 J. Contreras
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 21 S. Londoño González
- 247 I. Salinas
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