Match report →
Puebla – Monterrey1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.12
Total xG
2.62
Monterrey
1.50
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.5x league average) | −0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| Ignacio Maestro Puch on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Carlos Baltazar not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Corona on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Monterrey won 3 of the 4 meetings against Puebla with 1 draw
- Form: Puebla are winless in their last 5 matches with 3 draws and 2 losses
- Attack: Monterrey average 1.73 goals per match in the league this season, Puebla 1 goal per match
Risks
- Away: Monterrey concede 1.8 goals per match away from home in the league this season
- Rest days: Monterrey with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Puebla27%
Draw29%
Monterrey44%
Double chance
Puebla or draw56%
Monterrey or draw73%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.12 : 1.50, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monterrey: 37% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 19)
- Monterrey: 68% of all goals in the first half (13 of 19, last 12 games)
Lineups
Puebla 4-2-3-1 · Monterrey 4-2-3-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 99 H. Cuypers
Substitutes
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 6 J. Díaz Vázquez
- 195 Á. de la Rosa
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 10 L. Orellano
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