Match report →
Atlético San Luis – Querétaro2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.63
Total xG
2.77
Querétaro
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 6, 9 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 15, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Santiago Homenchenko not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iker Benito on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 59% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Atlético San Luis averaged 49.6% possession in their last 5 matches, Querétaro averaged 37.6%
- Head-to-head: Atlético San Luis won the last match against Querétaro 3-0, with 2 wins for each team in 4 meetings
- Attack: Atlético San Luis scored 16 goals in 12 league matches this season, the model expects 1.63 to 1.14 goals
Risks
- Table: Querétaro are 6th in the league this season with 20 points, Atlético San Luis are 15th with 13 points
- Rest days: Atlético San Luis with 3 days since their last match
- Away: Querétaro conceded 1.17 goals per away match in the league, Atlético San Luis 1.67 per home match
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis47%
Draw28%
Querétaro25%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw75%
Querétaro or draw53%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.63 : 1.14, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Querétaro: 3.2 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 12 games)
- Atlético San Luis: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 23 J. Robles
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 241 Emiliano Guerrero
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