Match report →
Guadalajara – Necaxa1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
2.07
Total xG
3.06
Necaxa
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| Attack strength (1.21x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 4, 13 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 17, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Ángel Sepúlveda on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sandoval on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Julián Carranza on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matías Espíndola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Owen González on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 73% of goal output missing (only 42% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Guadalajara score 1.67 goals per game at home in the league, Necaxa concede 2.2 per game away
- Table: Guadalajara sit 4th with 20 points from 12 games, Necaxa are 17th with 9 points from 12 games
- Form: Necaxa are winless in their last 5 games with 4 losses, while Guadalajara recorded 1 win
Risks
- Form: Guadalajara recorded 1 win in their last 5 games, alongside 3 draws and 1 loss
- xG: Necaxa generated 1.71 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara61%
Draw23%
Necaxa16%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw84%
Necaxa or draw39%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.07 : 0.99, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- Necaxa: 40% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 15)
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-4-2-1 · Necaxa 5-4-1
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 182 Leonel Calderón Oviedo
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
Necaxa
- 181 J. Orantes
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
Substitutes
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 5 B. González
- 6 O. Govea García
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 59 C. Inda Becerra
- 18 J. Perez
- 46 C. Palomares
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 210 J. Palacios Pulido
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 9 J. Carranza
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 27 M. Pedroza
- 208 L. Becerra Ramos
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