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Santos Laguna – Pumas UNAM2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santos Laguna
1.97
Total xG
3.09
Pumas UNAM
1.12
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos Laguna | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −0.51 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.39 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.39 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.25 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Luciano Herrera on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Santos Laguna won 5 of their last 5 matches, Pumas UNAM 1 of their last 5 matches
- Shots: Santos Laguna averaged 7.6 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, Pumas UNAM 4.4 per game
- Home form: Santos Laguna conceded 0.5 goals per game at home in 6 league matches this season
Risks
- Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM won 2 of the 4 meetings against Santos Laguna, with the last match ending 0:4
- Away attack: Pumas UNAM scored 1.67 goals per game away in 6 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Santos Laguna56%
Draw24%
Pumas UNAM20%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw80%
Pumas UNAM or draw44%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.560%
Under 2.540%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.97 : 1.12, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos Laguna: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Santos Laguna: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Santos Laguna 3-4-3 · Pumas UNAM 5-4-1
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
- 10 E. Bullaude
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 10 C. Huerta Valera
- 31 R. Morales
Substitutes
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 14 L. Herrera
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
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