Match report →
Atlas – Puebla4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.69
Total xG
2.72
Puebla
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Mathías Tomás on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 83% available) |
Key factors
- Form: Atlas won 2 of its last 5 matches, while Puebla remained winless in its last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Atlas won all 4 previous meetings against Puebla from 2024 to 2026
- Table: Atlas is 7th in the league this season with 21 points, Puebla is 13th with 16 points
Risks
- Home/Away: Atlas concedes 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Puebla concedes 1 goal per game away
- Rest days: Atlas with 3 days since its last match
All probabilities
Result
Atlas52%
Draw27%
Puebla21%
Double chance
Atlas or draw79%
Puebla or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.69 : 1.02, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlas with Florián Monzón starting: 1.7 goals/game, without him: 1 (10/20 games, last 30)
Lineups
Atlas 4-2-2-2 · Puebla 4-1-4-1
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 28 M. Capasso
- 19 A. Frías
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 18 E. Montiel
- 20 K. Zenon
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
Substitutes
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 58 A. González González
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 6 J. Díaz Vázquez
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 25 H. De Jesus Jurado Flores
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
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