Match report →
América – Pachuca1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
América
1.92
Total xG
2.95
Pachuca
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.73 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.4 goals/match) | +0.44 | |
| Rising form (3.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.44 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Álex Zendejas on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dagoberto Espinoza on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: América registered 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, Pachuca 0 wins and 3 losses
- Table: América sit 1st with 27 points from 12 matches, Pachuca are 16th with 13 points from 13 matches
Risks
- Away: Pachuca conceded 0.71 goals per match away from home in 7 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
América57%
Draw25%
Pachuca18%
Double chance
América or draw82%
Pachuca or draw43%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.92 : 1.03, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
10%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.8 cards per game (39 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Pachuca: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- América with Henry Martin starting: 2.3 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (13/12 games, last 30)
- Pachuca: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Pachuca 4-3-3
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 14 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
- 11 O. Idrissi
Substitutes
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 189 A. Cárdenas
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
- 206 Derek Jiménez
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 12 S. Santos
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 221 Ulises Martínez
- 207 Ian Josué Zavala Osorio
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