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Premier League

Manchester City - Crystal Palace

05/13/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Manchester City
2.0
Total xG
3.4
Crystal Palace
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:2

7%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
MCCP

Manchester City

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.47
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Erling Haaland on the bench (26 goals, 8 assists)
Rayan Cherki on the bench (4 goals, 11 assists)
Jérémy Doku on the bench (5 goals, 5 assists)
Nico O'Reilly not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 51% available)

Crystal Palace

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+0.57
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
IsmaĂŻla Sarr on the bench (8 goals, 1 assists)
Adam Wharton on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Manchester City: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Crystal Palace: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Manchester City with Phil Foden: 12.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Crystal Palace with YĂ©remy Pino: 1.3 goals/90 min. Without: 6.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Manchester City: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

24%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

87%

Under 1.5

13%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 3.5

55%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat: Manchester City has only 52% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, with Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki, JĂ©rĂ©my Doku, and Nico O'Reilly not in the lineup
  • Dominant Offense: Manchester City showed a possession-dominant playing style in their last 5 games (66% possession) with an average of 6.8 shots on target
  • Form and Table Position: Manchester City is unbeaten in 5 games and sits in 2nd place, while Crystal Palace is in 15th place with inconsistent form
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: Crystal Palace had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive Vulnerability: The mathematical analysis predicts a 67% probability of both teams scoring, indicating a more open game
  • Underdog Offensive Threat: The pipeline analysis sees 1.43 expected goals for Crystal Palace, posing a potential threat to the home team
Overview

Manchester City (2nd place, 74 points) host Crystal Palace (15th place, 44 points) at the Etihad Stadium in a Premier League match on May 13, 2026, 8:00 PM

Manchester City is fighting for the championship and needs every point

Crystal Palace is in the middle of the table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Manchester City's current form in all competitions: WWWDW

The team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

The last match result was a win

Crystal Palace's current form in all competitions: LWLWD

The team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last match result was a draw

Statistics

Manchester City averaged 2.06 goals scored per game and conceded 0.91 goals per game

Crystal Palace averaged 1.09 goals scored per game and conceded 1.26 goals per game

Manchester City kept 15 clean sheets, Crystal Palace 12 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 17 Manchester City games, and in 18 Crystal Palace games

Manchester City's home games saw an average of 2.05 goals scored per game and 0.6 goals conceded per game

Crystal Palace's away games saw an average of 1.11 goals scored per game and 1.28 goals conceded per game

The Etihad Stadium recorded an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games at the Etihad Stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City dominated with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Crystal Palace and 1 draw

Manchester City scored a total of 14 goals, while Crystal Palace scored 7 goals

The last encounter ended in a 3-0 victory for Manchester City on December 14, 2025

Manchester City has been the dominant team in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Manchester City: Phil Foden scored 7 season goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.25, his form is declining

Antoine Semenyo contributed 5 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.05, his form is declining

Matheus Nunes recorded 1 season goal and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.08, his form is stable

For Crystal Palace: Jean-Philippe Mateta has 11 season goals without assists and a rating of 6.77, his form is declining

Daniel Muñoz scored 4 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.02, his form is stable

YĂ©remy Pino contributed 2 season goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.86, his form is declining

Goalkeepers

Manchester City's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma played 32 season games and had an average rating of 6.89

He kept 15 clean sheets

Crystal Palace's goalkeeper Dean Henderson played 34 season games and had an average rating of 6.82

He kept 12 clean sheets

Influences

Manchester City has a strong home advantage, with an average of 2.05 goals scored and only 0.6 goals conceded per home game

Crystal Palace averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per away game

The Etihad Stadium is known for many goals, with an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 games at the Etihad Stadium

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